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World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity
This 1992 document was signed by 1,575 of the world’s most prominent scientists (including 99 of the 196 living Nobel laureates) and was sent to governmental leaders all over the world. The document asks people to take immediate action to stop the ever-increasing environmental degradation that threatens global life support systems on this planet. The appeal was coordinated by Dr. Henry Kendall, Nobel laureate (1990, Physics), and former Chairperson of the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity”
Introduction
Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about.
The Environment
The environment is suffering critical stress:
The Atmosphere
Stratospheric ozone depletion threatens us with enhanced ultra-violet radiation at the earth’s surface, which can be damaging or lethal to many life forms. Air pollution near ground level, and acid precipitation, are already causing widespread injury to humans, forests, and crops.
Water Resources
Heedless exploitation of depletable ground water supplies endangers food production and other essential human systems. Heavy demands on the world’s surface waters have resulted in serious shortages in some 80 countries, containing 40% of the world’s population. Pollution of rivers, lakes, and ground water further limits the supply.
Oceans
Destructive presure on the oceans is severe, particularly in the coastal regions which produce most of the world’s food fish. The total marine catch is now at or above the estimated maximum sustainable yield. Some fisheries have already shown signs of collapse. Rivers carrying heavy burdens of eroded soil into the seas also carry industrial, municipal, agricultural, and livestock waste—some of it toxic.
Soil
Loss of soil productivity, which is causing extensive land abandonment, is a widespread byproduct of current practices in agriculture and animal husbandry. Since 1945, 11% of the earth’s vegetated surface has been degraded—an area larger than India and China combined—and per capita food production in many parts of the world is decreasing.
Forests
Tropical rain forests, as well as tropical and temperate dry forests, are being destroyed rapidly. At present rates, some critical forest types will be gone in a few years, and most of the tropical rain forest will be gone before the end of the next century. With them will go large numbers of plant and animal species.
Living Species
The irreversible loss of species, which by 2100 may reach one third of all species now living, is especially serious. We are losing the potential they hold for providing medicinal and other benefits, and the contribution that genetic diversity of life forms gives to the robustness of the world’s biological systems and to the astonishing beauty of the earth itself.
Much of this damage is irreversible on a scale of centuries or permanent. Other processes appear to pose additional threats. Increasing levels of gases in the atmosphere from human activities, including carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning and from deforestation, may alter climate on a global scale. Predictions of global warming are still uncertain—with projected effects ranging from tolerable to very severe—but potential risks are very great.
Our massive tampering with the world’s interdependent web of life—coupled with the environmental damage inflicted by deforestation, species loss, and climate change—could trigger widespread adverse effects, including unpredictable collapses of critical biological systems whose interactions and dynamics we only imperfectly understand.
Uncertainty over the extent of these effects cannot excuse complacency or delay in facing the threats.
Population
The earth is finite. Its ability to absorb wastes and destructive effluent is finite. Its ability to provide food and energy is finite. Its ability to provide for growing numbers of people is finite. And we are fast approaching many of the earth’s limits. Current economic practices which damage the environment, in both developed and underdeveloped nations, cannot be continued without the risk that vital global systems will be damaged beyond repair.
Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth put demands on the natural world that can overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable future. If we are to halt the destruction of our environment, we must accept limits to that growth. A World Bank estimate indicates that world population will not stabilize at less than 12.4 billion, while the United Nations concludes that the eventual total could reach 14 billion, a near tripling of today’s 5.4 billion. But, even at this moment, one person in five lives in absolute poverty without enough to eat, and one in ten suffers serious malnutrition.
No more than one or a few decades remain before the chance to avert the threats we now confront will be lost and the prospects for humanity immeasurably diminished.
Warning
We the undersigned, senior members of the world’s scientific community, hereby warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it, is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.
What We Must Do
Five inextricably linked areas must be addressed simultaneously:
We must, for example, move away from fossil fuels to more benign, inexhaustible energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emissions and the pollution of our air and water. Priority must be give to the development of energy sources matched to third world needs—small scale and relatively easy to implement.
We must halt deforestation, injury to and loss of agricultural land, and the loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal species.
We must give high priority to efficient use of energy, water, and other materials, including expansion of conservation and recycling.
The developed nations are the largest polluters in the world today. They must greatly reduce their overconsumption, if we are to reduce pressures on resources and the global environment. The developed nations have the obligation to provide aid and support to developing nations, because only the developed nations have the financial resources and the technical skills for these tasks.
Acting on this recognition is not altruism, but enlightened self-interest: whether industrialized or not, we all have but one lifeboat. No nation can escape from injury when global biological systems are damaged. No nation can escape from conflicts over increasingly scarce resources. In addition, environmental and economic instabilities will cause mass migrations with incalculable consequences for developed and undeveloped nations alike.
Developing nations must realize that environmental damage is one of the gravest threats they face, and that attempts to blunt it will be overwhelmed if their populations go unchecked. The greatest peril is to become trapped in spirals of environmental decline, poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic, and environmental collapse.
Success in this global endeavor will require a great reduction in violence and war. Resources now devoted to the preparation and conduct of war—amounting to over $1 trillion annually—will be badly needed in the new tasks and should be diverted to the new challenges.
A new ethic is required—a new attitude toward discharging our responsibility for caring for ourselves and for the earth. We must recognize the earth’s limited capacity to provide for us. We must recognize its fragility. We must no longer allow it to be ravaged. This ethic must motivate a great movement, convincing reluctant leaders and reluctant governments and reluctant peoples themselves to effect the needed changes.
The scientists issuing this warning hope that our message will reach and affect people everywhere. We need the help of many.
We require the help of the world community of scientists—natural, social, economic, political;
We require the help of the world’s business and industrial leaders;
We require the help of the world’s religious leaders; and
We require the help of the world’s peoples.
We call on all to join us in this task.
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Selected List of Signatories |
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Anatole Abragam Carlos Aguirre Bruce Alberts Walter Alvarez Claude Allegre Michael Alpers Viqar Uddin Ammad Anne Anastasi Philip Anderson* Christian Anfinsen* How Ghee Ang Werner Arber* Michael Atiyah Mary Ellen Avery Julius Axelrod* Howard Bachrach John Backus Achmad Baiquni David Baltimore* H. A. Barker Francisco J. Barrantes David Bates Alan Battersby Georg Bednorz* Baruj Benacerraf* Germot Bergold Sune Bergstrom* Daniel Bes Hans Bethe* Arthur Birch Michael Bishop* Konrad Bloch* Nicholaas Bloembergen* David Mervyn Blow Baruch Blumberg* Bert Bolin Norman Borlaug* Frederick Bormann Raoul Bott Ronald Breslow Ricardo Bressani Hermann Brück Gerardo Budowski E. Margaret Burbidge Robert Burris Glenn Burton Adolf Butenandt* Sergio Cabrera Paulo C. Campos Ennio Candotti Henri Cartan Carlos Chagas Sivaramakrishna Chandrasekhar Georges Charpak* Joseph Chatt Shiing-Shen Chern Christopher Chetsanga Morris Cohen Stanley Cohen* Stanley N. Cohen Mildred Cohn E. J. Corey* John Cornforth * Hector Croxatto Paul Crutzen Partha Dasgupta Jean Dausset* Ogulande Robert Davidson Margaret Davis Luis D’Croz Hans Debmelt* Gerard Debreu* Pierre-Gilles de Gennes* Johann Deisenhofer* Frederica de Laguna Pierre Deligne Paul-Yves Denis Frank Dixon Johanna Döbereiner Joseph Doob Renato Dulbecco* Heneri Dzinotyiweyi Paul Ehrlich Manfred Eigen* Samuel Eilenberg Thomas Eisner Mohammed T. El-Ashry Gertrude Elion* Mahdi Elmandjra Aina Elvius K. O. Emery Paul Erdos Richard Ernst* Vittorio Ersparmer Sandra Faber Nina Federoff Herman Feshbach Ernst Otto Fischer* Inga Fischer-Hjalmars Michael Ellis Fisher Val Fitch* Daflinn Follesdal William Fowler* Otto Frankel Herbert Friedman Jerome Friedman* Konstantin V. Frolov Kenichi Fukui* Madhav Gadgil Mary Gaillard D. Carleton Gajdusek* Robert Gallo Rodrigo Gamez Antonio Garcia-Bellido Leopoldo Garcia-Collin Percy Garnham Richard Garwin Murray Gell-Mann* Georgii Georgiev Humam Bishara Ghassib Ricardo Giacconi Eleanor J. Gibson Donald Glaser* Sheldon Glashow* Edward Goldberg Marvin Goldberger Maurice Goldhaber Coluthur Gopolan Stephen Jay Gould James Gowans Roger Green Peter Greenwood Roger Guillemin* Herbert Gutowsky Erwin Hahn Gonzalo Halffter Kerstin Hall Mohammed Ahmed Hamdan Adnan Hamoui A. M. Harun-ar Rashid Mohammed H. A. Hassan Ahmed Hassanli Herbert Hauptman* Stephen Hawking Elizabeth Hay Dudley Herschbach* Gerhard Herzberg* Antony Hewish* George Hitchings* Dorothy Crowfoot Hodgkin* Roald Hoffman* Robert Holley* Nick Holonyak Lars Hormander Dorothy Horstmann John Houghton Sarah Hrdy Kenneth Hsu Kun Huang Hiroshi Inose Turner T. Isoun François Jacob* Carl-Olof Jacobson Dorothea Jameson Daniel Janzen Cecilia Jarlskog Louise Johnson Harold Johnston Victor A. Kabanov Jerome Karle* Robert Kates Frederick I. B. Kayanja Joseph Keller Henry Kendall* John Kendrew* Elisabeth Kessler Maung-U Khin Gurdev Khush Susan Kieffer Klaus von Klitzing* Aaron Klug* E. F. Knipling Walter Kohn Janos Kornai Aderemi Kuku |
Ikuo Kushiro Japan Devendra Lal Gerald Cecil Lalor Gerardo Lamas-Muller Torvard Laurent Leon Lederman* Sang Soo Lee Yuan T. Lee* Susan Leeman Jean-Marie Lehn* Wassily Leontief* Luna Leopold Louis Leprince-Ringuet Vladilen Letokhov Rita Levi-Montalcini* Shan Tao Liao Li Chang-lin William Lipscomb* Jane Lubchenco Christopher Magazda Lydia Phindile Makhubu Khursheed Ahmad Malik Lynn Margulis Paul Marks George Martine Frederico Mayor Ernst Mayr Maclyn McCarty James McConnell Digby McLaren James Meade* Jerrold Meinwald M. G. K. Menon Gennady Mesiatz Jan Michalski Hartmut Michel* Brenda Milner César Milstein* Franco Modigliani* Andrei Monin Marcos Moshinsky Nevill Mott* Teruaki Mukaiyama Walter Munk Anne Murray Joseph Murray* Noreen Murray Lawrence Mysak Jayant Vishnu Narlikar Anwar Nasim Kim Nasmyth James Neel Louis Néel* Yuval Ne’eman Oleg M. Nefedov Erwin Neher* Marshall Nirenberg* Yasutomi Nishizuka John S. Nkoma Paul Nchoji Nkvvi Howard Odum Bede Nwoye Okigbo Ayub Khan Ommaya Cyril Agodi Onwumechili Mary Jane Osborn Yuri Ossipyan Autzr Singh Paintal George Pake George Palade* Mary Lou Pardue Linus Pauling* Barbara Pearse Muhammed Abed Peerally Manuel Peimbert Roger Penrose John Philip Lilian Pickford John R. Pierce John Polanyi* George Porter* Ilya Prigogine* Giampietro Puppi Edward Purcell* Atta ur-Rahman G. N. Ramachandran Tiruppattur Ramakrishnan Chintamani Rao Eduardo Rapoport Marianne Rasmuson Peter Raven Martin Rees Gerardo Reichel-Dolmatoff Tadeus Reichstein* Frederick Reines Alexander Rich Burton Richter* Ralph Riley Claude Rimington Gustavo Rivas Mijares Frederick Robbins* Wendell Roelofs Heinrich Rohrer* Betty Roots Miriam Rothschild Sherwood Rowland Janet Rowley Carlo Rubbia* Vera Rubin Yuri Rudenko Elizabeth Russell Albert Sabin Carl Sagan Roald Sagdeev Ruth Sager Farrokh Saidi Abdus Salam* Frederick Sanger* José Sarukhan Berta Scharrer Richard Schultes Melvin Schwartz* Julian Schwinger* Glenn Seaborg* Michael Sela Arne Semb-Johansson Salimuzzaman Siddiqui Kai Siegbahn* Thomas Silou Herbert Simon* Alexej Sitenko Jens Skou Charles Slack George Snell* Boris S. Sokolov Roger Sperry* Alexander Spirin Earl Stadtman Thressa Stadtman Ledyard Stebbins Jack Steinberger* Janos Szentgothai Tan Jia-zhen Andrezej Tarkowski Valentine Telegdi Kirthi Tennakone Walter Thirring E. Donnall Thomas* Jan Tinbergen* Samuel C. C. Ting* James Tobin* Alexander Todd* Susumu Tonegawa* Cheng Kui Tseng Hans Tuppy James Van Allen Simon van der Meer* John Vane* Martha Vanghan Harold Varmus* George Wald* Henrik Wallgren E. T. S. Walton* Prawase Wasi Gerald Wasserburg James Watson* Victor Weisskopf Thomas Weller* Diter von Wettstein Fred Whipple Gilbert White Torsten Wiesel* Jerome Wiesner Maurice Wilkins* Geoffrey Wilkinson* Richard Willems Edward O. Wilson Lawrence A. Wilson Evelyn Witkin Yang Fujia Alexander L. Yanshin Yongyuth Yuthavong Zhao Zhong-xian Zhou Guang-zhao Solly Zuckerman |
| *Nobel Prize Winner Reprinted with permission from the Union of Concerned Scientists. |
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